{"id":4041,"date":"2019-10-13T16:19:06","date_gmt":"2019-10-13T13:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/?p=4041"},"modified":"2019-10-13T16:19:06","modified_gmt":"2019-10-13T13:19:06","slug":"iktisat-notlari-prof-dr-korkut-boratav-ile-turkiyenin-ekonomik-durumu-uzerine-17-08-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/?p=4041","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ktisat Notlar\u0131: Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ekonomik Durumu \u00dczerine ( 17.08.2019)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bu say\u0131m\u0131zda \u0130ktisat Notlar\u0131 sayfam\u0131z i\u00e7in Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonominin durumuna, kriz ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen tart\u0131\u015fmalara ve Yeni Ekonomik Program ile emek\u00e7ileri nelerin bekledi\u011fine ili\u015fkin sorular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Hukuk Defterleri: Ekonomide bir s\u00fcredir \u201cKrizde miyiz de\u011fil miyiz?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yerini \u201cKrizin en sert d\u00f6nemi geride kald\u0131 m\u0131 kalmad\u0131 m\u0131?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n \u201ct\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131\u201d atlatt\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, sizin \u201chay\u0131r, krizin kendisini ya\u015f\u0131yoruz\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131z var. Sizce krizin etkisi nas\u0131l s\u00fcr\u00fcyor? Bir olgunla\u015fma evresine girdi\u011fimizi s\u00f6yleyebilir miyiz?<\/span><\/p>\n

Korkut Boratav:<\/span> Ekonomik bir krizin basit g\u00f6stergelerine g\u00f6z atal\u0131m: \u00dcretimde, mill\u00ee gelirde, istihdamda daralma; i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131…<\/p>\n

Sanayi \u00fcretimi T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re A\u011fustos 2018\u2019den, \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re Nisan 2018\u2019den itibaren gerilemektedir. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme sanayiden \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 Temmuz 2018\u2019dedir. Krizin derinle\u015fmesinin en kritik g\u00f6stergesi istihdamda daralmad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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15-64 ya\u015f aral\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7indeki n\u00fcfusta istihdam edilenlerin toplam\u0131 Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019den beri d\u00fc\u015fmektedir. Mill\u00ee gelir istatistiklerine g\u00f6re, ekonominin t\u00fcm\u00fc Ekim 2018-Mart 2019 aras\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc; Nisan-Haziran verilerinin de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme do\u011frultusunda \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 kesindir. Daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, elektrik t\u00fcketimi, otomotiv \u00fcretimi, sanayide kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksleri Temmuz 2019\u2019da da d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Mill\u00ee gelirin sabit fiyatlarla harcamalar itibariyle d\u00f6k\u00fcm\u00fc, en sert daralman\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor: Ocak-Mart 2019\u2019da sabit sermaye birikimi y\u00fczde 13 oran\u0131nda gerilemi\u015ftir. Bu, ekonominin gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelinin de a\u015f\u0131nmakta oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6stergeler ortaya koyuyor ki, reel ekonomide \u201cini\u015f\u201d belirtileri 2018\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015flad\u0131; alt\u0131 ay sonra krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Nicel g\u00f6stergeler, krizin 2019\u2019un t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru ekonominin dibe vurmas\u0131 yani k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin son bulmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Orta d\u00f6nemde yani 2020 sonras\u0131nda ise, ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa mahk\u00fbm olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yani y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fc a\u015fmayan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu izleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

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Daha olumsuz bir senaryo da olas\u0131d\u0131r: Bankalar\u0131 da kapsayan bir finansal bunal\u0131m\u0131n patlak vermesi… D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcklerinden\u00a0kaynaklanabilecek olan bu sert senaryo acil g\u00fcndemde g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7i\u015ftiriliyor mu? Ertelendi mi? \u015eimdilik belli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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H.D.: Krizle beraber ekonomide en ciddi tart\u0131\u015fma da krizin k\u00f6kenine dair oldu. \u201cHukuksuzlu\u011fun krizi \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d ili\u015fkin bir yakla\u015f\u0131m var. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n iktidar\u0131n krizi \u201cd\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale\u201d ile a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00e7abas\u0131 bulunuyor. Sizce bu k\u00f6ken tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na nas\u0131l bir yan\u0131t \u00fcretmek gerekiyor?<\/span><\/p>\n

K.B.:<\/span> Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131, bunal\u0131m\u0131n sert bir a\u015famas\u0131nda \u201ckriz yok; komplo var\u201d s\u00f6ylemi ba\u015flatt\u0131. Albayrak, \u00e7e\u015fitli \u201cekonomi paketleri\u201d sunarken ayn\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye (veya TL\u2019ye) kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d benzeri ifadelerle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u015eimdi de \u201ct\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131 atlatt\u0131k\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

Bu ifadeler, kriz te\u015fhisini d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutan bir alg\u0131lama yetersizli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. 2002 sonras\u0131nda AKP politikalar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme- durgunla\u015fma-k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00e7evrimini t\u00fcm\u00fcyle d\u0131\u015f kaynak hareketlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 k\u0131ld\u0131. Bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k zamanla a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu yava\u015flarken d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k (ekonominin d\u00f6viz gereksinimi) t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p>\n

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Bu ortam, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uluslararas\u0131 finans kapitalin de\u011ferlendirmelerine teslim etti. Finans kapitalin spek\u00fclatif \u00f6\u011feleri (s\u0131cak para), d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ana belirleyicisidir. Bu \u00e7evreleri s\u00f6ylemlerinizle, kararlar\u0131n\u0131zla tedirgin ederseniz, h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir; bir d\u00f6viz krizi tetiklenir ve reel ekonomi de bunal\u0131ma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iktidar, 2017\u2019de se\u00e7im ekonomisi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fczl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne savruldu; May\u0131s \u2013 A\u011fustos 2018\u2019de \u201cayk\u0131r\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylem ve eylemlerle bir d\u00f6viz krizi tetikledi; sonraki aylarda ekonominin t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn bunal\u0131ma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7aresiz kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Krizin ekonomik \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc budur. Kayna\u011f\u0131nda AKP\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r ve giderek yo\u011funla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k var. Kendi eserleri olan bu bozuklu\u011fu, \u201cd\u0131\u015f komplolar\u201d su\u00e7lamas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme \u00e7abas\u0131 \u00e7aresizliklerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sonras\u0131nda hukuk sisteminin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r sars\u0131nt\u0131, krizin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00f6netimini etkilemi\u015ftir, etkilemektedir. 1980 sonras\u0131nda kronikle\u015fen yolsuzluk olgusu, AKP d\u00f6neminde daha da yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Bu yozla\u015fman\u0131n kriz y\u00f6netiminde daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 frenleyecek hukuk\u00ee ve kurumsal g\u00fcvenceler ayr\u0131ca zafiyet i\u00e7indedir. Vahim bir me\u015fruiyet bunal\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndemdedir.<\/p>\n

H.D.: Yeni Ekonomik Program ve 11. Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131 ile birlikte iktidar taraf\u0131ndan ekonomide baz\u0131 hedefler konulmu\u015f durumda. Bu hedefler aras\u0131nda \u201c\u00fcretim\u201d vurgusu ve \u201chedef \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi\u201d dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Sizce ekonomide bir paradigma de\u011fi\u015fimi mi mevcut?<\/span><\/p>\n

K.B.:<\/span> Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131, IMF\u2019siz bir IMF program\u0131d\u0131r; ana \u00f6\u011feleri Mart 2018\u2019de IMF uzmanlar\u0131nca haz\u0131rlanan bir T\u00fcrkiye raporundan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. O belgede, sonraki OVP\u2019de, y\u0131ll\u0131k programda ve 11. Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6stermelik \u00fcretim vurgusu ve hedefleri ciddiye al\u0131namaz. Zira hepsi, neo-liberal modelin serbest piyasac\u0131 ana doktrinini benimsemektedir. Bu doktrin, ekonominin d\u0131\u015f ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6\u011felerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na ve bunun i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesine \u00f6ncelik veren bir planlama perspektifinin tam kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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H.D.: Peki bu tabloda i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ve emek\u00e7i halk\u0131 bekleyenler neler? Ciddi bir sald\u0131r\u0131 program\u0131 haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6rne\u011fin Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Program\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131dem tazminat\u0131n\u0131n fona aktar\u0131lmas\u0131, esnek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bi\u00e7imlerinin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve te\u015fvik edilmesi hedefler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n krizden \u201csosyal\u201d ve \u201cekonomik\u201d anlamda ciddi bir kay\u0131pla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 ne yapmal\u0131, ekonomide i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ve emek\u00e7i halk lehine neler yap\u0131lmal\u0131?<\/span><\/p>\n

K.B.:<\/span> Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomik kriz, t\u00fcketimi, istihdam\u0131, reel \u00fccretleri, maa\u015flar\u0131, emekli ayl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 eriterek, emek\u00e7ileri bor\u00e7 tuza\u011f\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek daha da a\u011f\u0131r bir toplumsal bunal\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, 2019\u2019da son bulsa dahi, sonras\u0131nda (yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fim) bir durgunla\u015fma d\u00f6nemi ya\u015fanacakt\u0131r. Bu, kriz ortam\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ve emek-kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n sonraki y\u0131llara da ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n

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\u0130ktidar, d\u0131\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda se\u00e7im ekonomisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini fark etti\u011fi i\u00e7in se\u00e7im takvimini \u00f6ne ald\u0131. Mart-Haziran 2019 yenilgileri bu sayede sadece yerel y\u00f6netimlerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

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Kendili\u011finden geli\u015fen, Haziran\u2019da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olan siyas\u00ee muhalefet bloku, emek \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin \u00f6zellikle sendikala\u015fman\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Muhalefet blokunun halk s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda etkili olmas\u0131, k\u00f6k salmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, emek\u00e7ilerin ekonomik, toplumsal taleplerine duyarl\u0131 olmas\u0131; krizin kapka\u00e7\u00e7\u0131 sermaye \u00e7evrelerince y\u00f6netimine a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekiyor. T\u00fcm ilerici, sola d\u00f6n\u00fck meslek \u00f6rg\u00fctlerine, partilere, hareketlere, ayd\u0131nlara bu do\u011frultuda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6devler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Demokratikle\u015fme programlar\u0131n\u0131n, s\u0131radan i\u015f\u00e7ilerin, diplomal\u0131, diplomas\u0131z i\u015fsizlerin, topraks\u0131z k\u00f6yl\u00fclerin, \u00e7ift\u00e7ilerin, kent ve k\u0131r yoksullar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zlemleriyle b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmesi, kayna\u015fmas\u0131 gereklidir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bu say\u0131m\u0131zda \u0130ktisat Notlar\u0131 sayfam\u0131z i\u00e7in Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonominin durumuna, kriz ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen tart\u0131\u015fmalara ve Yeni Ekonomik Program ile emek\u00e7ileri nelerin bekledi\u011fine ili\u015fkin sorular\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.     Hukuk Defterleri: Ekonomide bir s\u00fcredir \u201cKrizde miyiz de\u011fil miyiz?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yerini \u201cKrizin en sert d\u00f6nemi geride kald\u0131 m\u0131 kalmad\u0131 m\u0131?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,132],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sayilar-21","category-roportaj"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4041\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hukukdefterleri.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}